Conference notes EGMONT

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Summary; this is not an official record of proceedings and specific remarks are not necessarily attributable.

 

Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian deputy prime minister, foreign minister and the first Jordanian ambassador to Israel, was at the forefront of efforts to bring peace to the Middle East. He was one of the authors of the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 and recently, he published the book “The Arab Center: The Promise of Moderation”.  The book is about Arab moderation, its successes and its failures, and it is a reminder of roads built but not travelled.

Mr Muasher touched upon the Arab League Initiative, the peace process, the issue of Arab reform and moderation. He argued that it is in Israel’s, the Arab world’s and the US’s interests to move toward the implementation of existing solutions quickly, as “extremism is growing at an alarming rate”. He called for “a holistic approach” and for Arab moderates to reform or face extinction.

Arab Center’s Initiatives

Mr Muasher first presented the Arab Center and explained why this centre is not holding.

It has put forward on the table all the major initiatives to solve the conflict, including the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 endorsed by the Arab countries. “For the first time in history, the Arab world puts on the table an initiative that addresses not only the Arab needs (including an end to the occupation and the establishment of a two-state solution), but also every single Israeli need”. According to the proposal, in return for Arab conditions for peace, the Arabs will offer Israel the following:
-a collective peace treaty with the Arab world and normal relations with Israel,
-collective security guarantees for all states in the region,
-an end to the conflict and no further claims – no Arab will claim any territory that belong to pre-1948 Palestine,
-an agreed-upon solution to the refugee problem.

Unfortunately, Mr Muasher stated, this initiative was not taken very seriously, either by Israel or by the United States. They “responded only with lip service”. Mr Muasher is convinced that, despite all the violence and lack of political progress, the Arab Peace Initiative still stands. “Not a single Arab state has withdrawn its signature. Every single Arab state is still committed to resolve the conflict through the initiative.”

Moderation needed across the board

Arab moderates put together all these peace initiatives, but, “they are very much on the defence today”, primarily because of the fact that they did not address the issue of reform. Moderation today is “selective moderation”: moderates on peace are not moderates on other issues of concern to Arab citizens and vice versa. For the Arab Center to hold, it needs to apply moderation across the board, according to Mr Muasher.

Ending the gradual approach

Mr Muasher believed that the gradual approach to peacemaking has been exhausted. The problem of Oslo is that it took too much time. “Therefore, it was time given to the opponents of peace to derail the process”. Mr Muasher is pleading for changing the mindset and taking the leap toward a comprehensive settlement. “Today, we have already a negotiated solution. The parameters of that solution are known, thanks to negotiations between the two parties and to the frameworks suggested by other parties. That solid framework can serve as a solid basis for an agreement”. He is opposed to separate peace agreements between Israel and the Palestinians or the Syrians. The Israeli public will say: we sign an agreement with half of the Palestinian population and Palestinians will say the same thing. Other key dimensions of the conflict will not be addressed, such as the relations with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

Role of local players and the US

Mr Muasher said that, in the context of a holistic agreement, the Arab world will “deliver Hamas and Hezbollah and it is the responsibility of the Arab world to disarm both”. Hamas and Hezbollah “need to be brought in the political process at any rate”, but, they’ll become minor players. This requires a change of mindset on part of the international community, and on part of the American administration.

The Bush administration has disengaged itself from the peace process in recent years. Mr Muasher noted that with the new incoming administration, there is a chance to bring back the focus to the Arab Peace Initiative and to the need to resolve this conflict now!

He emphasised that time is not on the side of peace, because radicalisation increases at an alarming rate in the Middle East and Israel faces a huge demographic problem.
Israel has 5 million Jews inside the state and 5 millions Arabs in territories it controls. In less than a generation, the number of Arabs inside these territories will be greater than the number of Jews. “If a two-state-solution is not possible today, time will solve the problem!”

If the US is concerned about Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, the only way they can solve this problem is through a holistic look to the region. USA’s policy of compartmentalisation of issues during the last 8 years has clearly failed. Mr Muasher felt there is an opportunity today that moderates can convince the US administration of the need to have a quick resolution of the conflict.

Reform issues

On the reform issue, Mr Muasher noted that this is primarily an Arab responsibility and in particular the responsibility of Arab moderates to be more vocal inside the societies. Today, the argument in the Arab world is between two schools of thought. One says that if you open up the system, the Islamists come in. The other school of thought says that if you don’t open up the system, the Islamists come in. The continuation of the closed system in the Arab world has not weakened the Islamic parties in the Arab world. Hamas and Hezbollah are among the most popular forces, partly because of the failure of the Arab moderates to open up their systems.

He is in favour of gradual opening the system. An important step to start is through a commitment by all political parties to the following principles: peaceful means and political and cultural diversity. No party can use democracy to come into power and then deny the right for other parties to organise or impose its cultural or religious views.

The challenge of a pluralistic, democratic and prosperous Arab society remains. If Israel wants to be accepted in the region, it is clear that they have to work for the Palestinians to live free of occupation and to have their own state.

Question and answer session

On why now picking up the Arab Peace Initiative, Dr. Muasher explained that Clinton tempted to solve the conflict, but left out Syria and Lebanon. He left the questions of Hezbollah and Hamas hanging. The Arab Peace Initiative changes the whole mindset and assures the Israel public that the Arab world is ready to accept them.
He noted that Mr Olmert acknowledges the demographic problem and the need for Israel to evacuate most of the settlements and most of the West Bank. But, according to Muasher, “Mr Olmert can only realise this at the end of this term, because public opinion is not totally in favour for this. The international community led by the USA should act as an umbrella under which the solution can become a reality”. He urged Arab moderates to convince the US administration to refocus on this conflict.

Questioned about the refugee problem, Mr Muasher responded that one should be realistic. All polls have indicated that less than 10% of the Palestinians want to return. Of course, no Arab leader will give up the right of return a priori of any negotiation between the parties. Furthermore, no Palestinian state without East-Jerusalem is meaningful for the Palestinians or the Arab world. One forgets their wish for compensation, he added. He agreed that at the end the refugee problem will be largely a financial issue, but the problem can only be solved in the context of an agreement.

Moderation has been painted by the Arab public as a compromiser of Arab rights, as an apologist for the West. Mr Muasher rejected this definition and, according to him, moderation means a belief in pluralism, diversity, in peaceful means and a belief in inclusion. We need to embrace all different communities. A great problem is the lack of a large group that is in favour of this sort of moderation.

On the Arab Peace Initiative, Mr Muasher believed there is a responsibility on Arab states to explain the initiative. Talking to Israelis of all political sides, Mr Muasher hasn’t met an Israeli who doesn’t accept this. He urged the players to be pro-active.

Questioned about the disarmament of Hezbollah and Hamas, he said this is required to be part of the political process and he referred to the situation in Irish Republican Army. The disarmament and cut-off their finances are only possible through a comprehensive settlement.

What is the Iranian position? Iran rhetoric about Israel today has nothing to do with the Israeli-Arab conflict, but with their position in the region and will do anything to draw attention to them. Iran was involved in the Iran contra affairs with the Israelis in the early ‘80s.

Mr Muasher then developed his opinion on the role of the EU. Europe on one hand played a very positive role in taming down the US position. Powel then used the Quartet primarily to tame down his own administration’s views on the Middle East. As a result, we advanced the position of Europe and the USA with regard to the conflict. When the Road Map was finally launched, one of the terms of reference was the Arab Peace Initiative. In the second term of the Bush administration, Powell left and the Quartet just disintegrated. Europe was not able to follow up on its own position. In Jordan and in the Arab world, we have urged the EU to be more pro-active, esp. in terms of implementation, as the Road Map needed a monitoring system. But, the EU didn’t insist on this mechanism and the Road Map was born dead.