Prof. Dr. André Sapir, Senior Fellow at Bruegel, presented the paper he co-authored for the September 2025 informal meeting of European finance ministers and central bank governors under the Danish Presidency : ‘Geopolitical shifts and their economic impact on Europe’. He outlined how the global order has evolved from a bipolar system, to a brief unipolar phase, and into today’s increasingly multipolar world, where geopolitics has re-emerged as a largely zero-sum game in tension with economic integration. While the impact of the US tariffs did not reveal to be as difficult as forecasted for the euro area, Prof. Sapir cautioned against further complacency, pointing to potential risks such as financial crises or an escalation of Russia’s hybrid war. Looking at the medium term (2030–2035), the report develops three possible scenarios: from a base scenario with rivalry between nation-states due to a re-nationalisation of the economic system; a regional economic system with the possibility of a two-blocs scenario plus non-stresses the importance for Europe of strengthening its strategic autonomy in order to become a shaper, rather than a taker, of future global outcomes.

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