The (In)Auspicious Number Four: An Assessment of the Fourth Plenum of the Twentieth National Congress of the CCP
Amid ongoing rivalry between various factions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), severely depleted ranks caused by the ongoing anti-corruption crackdown, purges within the top ranks of the Chinese military, slowing economic growth, high youth unemployment, low consumer confidence, falling real-estate prices, and mounting local-government debt, the 20th Central Committee of the CCP convened its Fourth Plenary Session (‘Fourth Plenum’) in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025.
Attendance at the Fourth Plenum was notably low: 168 of 205 full members and 147 of 171 alternate members were present,1 marking the lowest relative turnout at a CCP plenum since the official end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976.
During the Fourth Plenum, the 15th Five-Year Plan was deliberated and adopted, and subsequently set out in the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the CCP for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (hereafter, ‘Recommendations’). This plan will be submitted to the National People’s Congress (NPC; China’s ‘parliament’) for approval inMarch 2026. Whether these measures will meaningfully
address China’s economic and structural challenges amid an increasingly complex geopolitical environment remains to be seen.
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