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The geographically asymmetric impact of Brexit

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Much has been made of the economic disruption that Brexit will entail. Whenever the transition period comes to an end, the economic pain that has thus far been mostly hypothetical will become a reality. However, what is not as widely understood isthat this pain will be distributed highly asymmetrically, both across and within EU member states.

This asymmetry will likely affect the bargaining dynamics on the future EU-UK relationship amongst the EU27, as well as their domestic politics and evolving perceptions of European integration. Furthermore, the disruptive consequences of Brexit will be compounded by the economic shock triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak. This toxic combination sets the stage for intense political turbulence.

This article was first published in the book Towards an ambitious, broad, deep and flexible EU-UK partnership? of the European Policy Centre (EPC). Read the article from p. 61-67.

(Photo credit:  Christoph Scholz, by Flickr)